Senior Fellow in Political Economy Praveen Chakravarty writes that only a historic debacle would prevent BJP from winning the UP Elections in 2017. In this India Spend article, he notes that BJP won 328 of 403 assembly segments in 2014. A loss in UP Polls in 2017 would mean biggest vote-share swing in history.
Key excerpts from the article are below:
"In a four-cornered, first-past-the-post system, the winning party needs only a 25-30% vote share in each constituency. The BJP won 253 out of the 403 constituencies with greater than 40% vote share in the 2014 elections. This suggests that even if there had been opposition unity, the BJP may have still won well more than half of all seats.
Further, it won an outright majority (more than 50% of votes) in 94 constituencies. There has been no political party that has won so many seats in UP with such huge margins in recent history...
It was this victory in UP that enabled the BJP to be the first to win an outright majority in Parliament since 1984. The enormity of the BJP victory in UP just three years ago should ideally mean only one very predictable outcome of the 2017 state elections in UP – a BJP majority."
The full article can be read here