March 03, 2014

The mathematics of the 'Modi Wave'

In this Business Standard article, Praveen Chakravarty says that the mathematical value of the Modi wave should be equal to at least five per cent more Lok Sabha seats for the BJP than its best-ever historical performance in each state over the last 25 years.


"The six largest states (Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Tamil Nadu) account for more seats (54 per cent) in the Lok Sabha than the rest of the country combined. And 18 of the 29 states of India account for nearly 95 per cent of all Lok Sabha seats. There are dominant regional parties in 11 of these 18 states (if a regional party has contested all seats in its state in the past, it is classified as dominant). Analysis of the last six Lok Sabha elections from 1991 to 2009 in these 18 states reveals that the electoral landscape is getting crowded with every passing election. In 1991, six parties/alliances contested in all seats in at least one state. In 2009, nine such alliances contested and in 2014, the number is likely to be much higher than nine, making it one of the most crowded elections in Indian history....

At the time of this writing, for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP under Modi's leadership will not have an alliance partner (defined as contesting at least 25 per cent of seats) in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Bihar that it previously had when it recorded its best-ever performance. Assuming that the BJP is able to match its best-ever historical performance in each of these 18 states, under the current alliance conditions, it will garner 230 out of the 509 seats (45 per cent). Thus, its winning percentage of 45 per cent is five percentage points below what is needed for a majority, i.e. "Mission 272+". Had it been able to stitch up alliances with each of its regional partner to match its historical best, then this alliance's best-ever historical performance in each state would have been 357 seats out of the 509 (70 per cent). Thus, this "Modi wave" needs to deliver a minimum of five per cent (50-45 per cent) more seats than the BJP's best-ever historical performance.
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Read the full article here.

Topic : Transitions / In : OP-EDS
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