January 06, 2014

The math behind Jayalalithaa's prime ministerial ambitions

In this Business Standard article, Praveen Chakravarty says that Jayalalithaa's prime ministerial ambitions can indeed be backed by sound rationale.

 

"Eighteen states account for 94 per cent of all Lok Sabha seats but six largest states account for 54 per cent and determine the eventual winner: Amid the din of the recently-concluded state elections, dubbed the "semi finals" by our indulgent television media, it is important to remember that of the 30 states in the country, the six largest states account for 54 per cent of all Lok Sabha seats and have more seats in the Lok Sabha than all the rest of the country put together. And none of the four states that went to polls recently figure in these top six states...

TN and Andhra Pradesh deliver more seats to the winner than UP, Maharashtra and Bihar: An interesting and a very important observation from table I is that, of the six largest states, TN and Andhra Pradesh deliver the maximum number of seats to the winner in both the best and worst cases. It is interesting to note that while UP has the maximum number of seats in the Lok Sabha (80) and, thus gets the most attention in media, due to the genuine four-cornered nature of elections in UP, the winner has, at best, won 35 out of 80 seats, lower than the winner in Andhra Pradesh or TN. With a potential split in Andhra Pradesh looming and a muddling of coalitions in the state since the 2009 elections, it is reasonable to expect, based on historical patterns, that the winner in TN will secure the maximum number of seats in any given state in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections."

 

Read the full article here.

Topic : State Capacity / In : OP-EDS
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