January 29, 2018

Lost miracle: How India wasted an opportunity to add $200 billion to its economy

In this Print articlePraveen Chakravarty, Resident Senior Fellow at IDFC Instititute, writes about why the 2018 Economic Survey is rich in detail and temperate in prognosis. Excerpts:

 

"Indulge in a thought experiment: It is June 2014. India has just elected a single party with a clear majority in Parliament in three decades. The Prime Minister designate has a strong reputation for economic development. Crude oil prices have halved from the previous year.

 

Exactly, the three most important requirements for an economic miracle in India — a full majority for the ruling party without being held to ransom by coalition partners, a focus on economic development by the Prime Minister and low oil prices for a large, oil dependent, fast growing economy such as India. If we had to guess what this miraculous alignment of stars would portend for the Indian economy, most of us would have rubbed our hands in glee and predicted a robust, double digit economic growth for five full years. In other words, we would have predicted the size of India’s economy to be $2.2 trillion in FY 2018 (at 10 per cent growth).

 

The Economic Survey 2017-18 tells us that India’s economy will most likely be $2 trillion. A lost potential output of $200 billion. This, at a time when there have been no global crises and oil prices have continued to fall (until just recently). The Economic Survey of 2017-18 leaves the reader with exactly this sympathetic sense of ‘what could have been’."

 

Read the full article here.

Topic : State Capacity / In : OP-EDS
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