March 30, 2016

Captain Disruptor: Which Dravidian party has Vijayakanth affected more?

Visiting Fellow, Praveen Chakravarty in his News Minute article examines the likely impact of the DMDK lead third front on Tamil Nadu’s otherwise stable political landscape.


Excerpts from the analysis are presented below:


"Amid... powerful, dominating bi-polar forces in Tamil Nadu politics, one wonders why this “kolaveri” over an entire alphabet soup of smaller regional outfits such as the DMDK, VCK, PMK, MDMK etc. The answer is of-course, India’s incongruous first-past-the-post electoral system where splitting an opponent’s vote can be as rewarding as winning a vote for oneself. Will this Vijayakanth led third front play spoiler enough to wreak havoc in Tamil Nadu’s otherwise stable political landscape? Will this front adversely impact the AIADMK or the DMK more?"

".... the negative impact of DMDK’s vote share gains is far greater on the DMK than on the AIADMK. It is interesting to note that in constituencies where the BJP contested against the AIADMK and the DMK in the 2014 elections, its impact on AIADMK vote share was twice that of its impact on the DMK, almost the exact opposite of the DMDK impact...."

"This analysis was repeated for the 2006 elections as well as the 2009 elections. Every time, the DMDK’s impact on DMK vote share was far greater than its impact on AIADMK. In the 2006 election, when the DMDK captured its highest ever stand alone vote share, it impacted the DMK vote share four times more than it impacted the AIADMK vote share. It is quite evident from this analysis that the DMK has far greater reasons to worry about DMDK than the AIADMK, which perhaps explains their nonchalance."


Read the entire text of the article here


Topic : State Capacity / In : OP-EDS
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