November 14, 2015

A Reverse Swing

In this Outlook article, Praveen Chakravarty does a district-wise analysis to find out how the voters of Bihar voted for the BJP and Modi. He finds thaat almost 8 lakh voters who voted for BJP in 2014, did not vote for them in the 2015 elections.

 

" In the recent Bihar state election, a sizeable number of BJP voters switched loyalties...There were 19 million voters across 129 constituencies in Bihar (where the BJP had served up candidates in both 2014 and 2015 elections). Of these, 7.8 million chose the BJP over all the other parties in 2014. In the 2015 election, only 7 million voted for the BJP in these constituencies. Thus, nearly 8 lakh BJP voters from 2014 changed loyalties in 2015. Whether the opposition was united or not is irrelevant here..

The surprising finding is that in the top five districts according to the URL index, the BJP lost 14 per cent voteshare, while in the bottom five districts, it gained a six per cent voteshare. Even more surprisingly, in the four districts that account for 70 per cent of all Muslims in Bihar, the BJP gained 5.5 per cent in voteshare compared to the 2014 elections. The BJP has gained voteshare in Muslim constituencies, while it lost much of its traditional base among the urban rich. The BJP’s “celebratory fireworks in Pakistan” campaign in the last phase of the election, during which these Muslim heavy districts went to polls, may have served a limited purpose. But the rest of Bihar rose up in protest against the BJP."

 

To get the data and other details mentioned in the article, click here.

Topic : Transitions / In : OP-EDS
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